Brief Geopolitics Update

Cuboids Research, 24 April 2022

Clarifications below.

Clarifications (April 26-27):

  1. WOMD risks are extremely high, even if they haven’t increased between March 24 and April 24.
  2. Spillovers are almost guaranteed. In the words of Mikhail Khodorovsky: “Your choice is either defeat Putin on the territory of Ukraine or later you will have to defeat him on the territoriy of one of the NATO countries.
  3. Moldova (including Transdniestria) is at serious risk. Assessments of military strength change frequently and may be unreliable.
  4. Regarding civil unrest, CEIP has a global protest tracker. So far, protests involving rising prices have been observed in Morocco, Spain, and Sri Lanka.